Opening a Pokémon TCG booster pack is a thrill. The crinkle of the foil, the slow reveal of the cards… it’s a core part of the hobby. But as your collection grows, you might start wondering: how can I be smarter about which packs I buy? The answer lies in understanding pull rates.
Pull rates are the statistical probability of finding a card of a specific rarity inside a booster pack. While The Pokémon Company doesn’t publish official numbers, the dedicated TCG community gathers massive amounts of data from thousands of pack openings to calculate these odds.
Using this data can help you align your purchases with your collecting goals, whether you’re trying to complete a set, hunt for a specific card, or build a competitive deck. Let’s break down how to use pull rates to your advantage.
Understanding Modern Rarity & “Hits”
First, it’s important to know what you’re looking for. In the current Scarlet & Violet era, a “hit” is generally considered any card that isn’t a regular non-holo or holo rare. The main rarities you’ll be tracking are:
- Double Rare (RR): Standard Pokémon ex cards. These are the most common “hits.”
- Illustration Rare (IR): Full-art cards featuring a Pokémon in a unique scene, often drawn by a fan-favorite artist.
- Ultra Rare (UR): Full-art versions of Pokémon ex and Supporter cards.
- Special Illustration Rare (SIR): The most sought-after cards in a set. These are textured, full-art cards that are often alternate versions of Pokémon ex or Supporters.
- Hyper Rare (HR): Gold-etched, textured cards.
A set’s value and desirability are often determined by the pull rates of its IR and SIR cards.
How to Match Pull Rates to Your Collecting Goals
The “best” set to buy depends entirely on what you want to achieve. Here’s how to use pull rates to make your choice.
1. For the Master Set Collector
Your Goal: To collect one of every card in the set. What to Look For: Sets with a high overall “hit rate.” These are sets where you are likely to find an IR or better in a relatively low number of packs. For example, special sets like Paldean Fates or Crown Zenith are famous for their generous pull rates, often yielding a “hit” every 3-4 packs. This makes filling out the non-secret-rare portion of your binder much faster and more enjoyable. A set with a low overall hit rate will require buying many more packs (or singles) to complete.
2. For the “Chase Card” Hunter
Your Goal: To pull one specific, high-value card (like an SIR Charizard or a popular Supporter). What to Look For: The specific pull rate for that single card. This is where it gets tough. A chase card might have a pull rate of 1 in 500 packs, or even 1 in 1,000+.
In this scenario, pull rates serve as a reality check. If a booster box contains 36 packs and the card you want is 1-in-500, you are statistically very unlikely to find it even after opening a full case (6 boxes). For chase card hunters, data often suggests that buying the single card directly is far more cost-effective than trying to pull it.
3. For the Competitive Player
Your Goal: To get playable Pokémon ex and Supporter cards for your decks. What to Look For: Sets with a high density of competitively viable Double Rare (RR) cards. Since Double Rares are the most common hits (often 1 in every 5-7 packs), a set loaded with strong ones offers immense value for players. You can build the core of multiple decks from just one or two booster boxes. The pull rates for Ultra Rare Supporters are also important, but the Double Rares are your bread and butter.
Case Study: High Hit Rate vs. Top-Heavy Set
To see this in action, let’s compare two types of sets.
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Set Type A: The “High Hit Rate” Set (e.g., Paldean Fates)
- Pull Rates: Very high. You might get a Shiny or an Illustration Rare every few packs.
- Pros: Extremely fun to open. Great for younger collectors or those who want the thrill of finding something special frequently. Helps complete the bulk of a set quickly.
- Cons: The value of any single hit is often lower because they are more common.
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Set Type B: The “Top-Heavy” Set (e.g., Evolving Skies)
- Pull Rates: Low overall hit rate, but contains several extremely valuable and sought-after chase cards.
- Pros: The potential for a massive “win” is huge. Pulling one of the top chase cards can pay for the entire booster box and then some.
- Cons: High-risk, high-reward. It’s very common to open an entire booster box and find only a few low-value hits, which can feel disappointing.
Where to Find Pull Rate Data
The community is your best resource! Look for:
- TCG Data Websites: Search for terms like “Pokémon TCG [Set Name] pull rate data.” Reputable sites often publish articles after a set’s release with data compiled from thousands of packs.
- Content Creators: Many YouTubers and streamers perform large-scale openings (10+ booster boxes) and share their detailed results.
- Community Hubs: Forums like Reddit often have threads where users pool their opening data.
When reviewing data, always prioritize sources with a large sample size. Data from 5,000 packs is far more reliable than data from 50.
Final Thoughts
Pull rates aren’t magic—they’re math. They can’t tell you what’s in your next pack, but they can set your expectations and guide your budget.
Remember, the goal is to enhance your enjoyment of the hobby. If you love the thrill of the hunt no matter the odds, then buy the set with the art you love most. But if you want to be a strategic collector, using pull rates is the single best tool at your disposal. It helps you spend smarter, avoid disappointment, and get closer to achieving your personal Pokémon TCG goals.